Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Risk of double-dip recession: Unlikely, but rising

Remember a lot of these guys didn't predict the housing bubble, so take these predictions with caution.

The survey of 31 economists, compiled this month, shows that the chance of another downturn in the next year is around 25%, according to a median consensus. That's up significantly from about a 15% risk six months ago.
But even if the nation avoids another recession, economists are in broad agreement that the current economic pain -- high unemployment, weak growth, little improvement in home values -- isn't going away anytime soon.
I know that this isn't a technical recession in fact the recession was declared dead in June 2009, but then what is it?

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