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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Will next week the Fed starts pumping money and will it cause higher mortgage rates

There has a fury of news and commentary this week and over the last weeks concerning the possible new Fed purchasing US Treasuries.  The concern is that as the Fed prints money to purchase these Treasuries will cause inflation and therefore higher mortgage rates.  Here's the policy in a nut shell:
[Fed]
...The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of nearly $2 trillion it unveiled during the financial crisis. The announcement is expected to be made at the conclusion of a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee next Wednesday.
The Fed's aim is to drive up the prices of long-term bonds, which in turn would push down long-term interest rates. It hopes that would spur more investment and spending and liven up the recovery. But officials want to avoid the "shock and awe" style used during the crisis in favor of an approach that allows them to adjust their policy, and possibly add to their purchases, over time as the recovery unfolds...
 Now this is the concern of the program
...Some investors are on edge about how the Fed will proceed. On the one hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 12% since Mr. Bernanke began hinting about buying more bonds two months ago, a welcome rise inside the Fed.
But commodities prices are also soaring, with copper, gold and oil prices rising 16%, 8.1% and 13% respectively. That could portend more inflation than the Fed wants. At the same time, the dollar has slid nearly 10% against the euro; that could help U.S. exports, but it creates tensions with trading partners. A sharp drop in the dollar could give Fed officials pause..
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